Afghanistan is a geographical neighbour to India and has a strategic location in South Asia. It have Central Asian Republics in North, Pakistan to its East, and through Iran and Pakistan the Indian Ocean to south. India’s vital interest in Afghanistan is that Pakistan does not gain dominance in governing structure of Afghanistan. India feels if Pakistan is able to install Taliban or Taliban sponsored regime in Afghanistan, it may be a security concern for it. For India to trade with Central Asian Republics, route is via Chabahar port and thereafter by Delaram highway both of them built by India. Central Asia has large deposits of natural gas and oil. Afghanistan is an energy bridge and key to achieving India’s strategic goals.
India has historic bilateral ties with Afghanistan, both are part of several regional groups vis-à-vis South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Friendly relations with Afghanistan can be traced back to 1950 when Treaty of Friendship for a period of five years was signed by the Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru and Afghan’s then Ambassador to India, Mohammad Najibullah. Since 2001, India’s partnership with Afghanistan has gained importance, India is the fifth-largest provider of assistance to Afghanistan. It has provided $650 -750 million worth of economic and humanitarian aid, making it largest aid provider in the region. India’s investment include health, education, power plants and training of Afghan civil servants, diplomats and police. In 2015, India donated three Mi 25 attack helicopters as a part of bilateral strategic partnership to counter Taliban insurgency. India plans to expand its economic presence in Afghanistan as the Nations fighting Taliban have started withdrawing. India plans to strengthen its connectivity with Central and South Asia. More projects are in pipeline once the NATO has finished its withdrawal. It includes establishing Iron ore mines, 6 steel plants by SAIL, 800 MW power plant, Hydro-electric projects and roads. India installed dams provides irrigation of farmland in the Chisti Sharif district. Indian government has invested $100 million in the expansion of the Chabahar port which can be utilised to import and export goods, minerals to landlocked Afghanistan and further to Central Asia.
It’s a massive infrastructure project in Pakistan being carried out by China. Project was launched on April 20, 2015. Goal of the project is to modernise the rail, road, energy and air transportation systems, and to connect Gwadar, Karachi to China’s Xingjiang province via land route. This project will reduce time of goods import and export to large extent, with respect to circumventing the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea. CPEC is part of the Belt and Road Initiative – to improve trade, connectivity, communication and cooperation with countries of Southeast Asia, the Gulf region, Central Asia, Africa and Europe with land and sea routes. This project will build a way for China to access the Africa and Middle East from Gwadar Port, enabling China to get access to Indian Ocean.
CPEC passes through Pakistan occupied Kashmir, which is a disputed territory. Now Afghanistan joining CPEC raises eyebrows of India. Implication of the same can be seen economically, politically and strategically. China is planning to fill the vacuum created by withdrawal of NATO forces and economic investments of US. It is trying to exploit this opportunity to get its Belt and Road Initiative going. India had made a huge investment on Chabahar port of Iran, to improve its relation with Afghanistan and for its own strategic benefits. India foresaw Chabahar port as its future axis to Central Asian Countries via Afghanistan. India – Afghanistan – Iran trilateral relation will get diluted. Extension of CPEC to Afghanistan may undermine position of India as security, economic and strategic partner of Afghanistan. India has been the largest regional donor in Afghanistan for developmental work. With CPEC extension, China will play a major role in Afghanistan hence diluting India’s economic influence in Afghanistan. CPEC will assist Afghanistan for its economic development, but it will also assist Pakistan gain the strategic advantage and get an edge over India. Pakistan may use terrorism against India, by joining hand with Taliban forces. Bagram air force base is a strategic air base in Afghanistan, US forces used it till the end instead of Kabul airport; which indirectly points towards its strategic importance. China is also planning to exploit all resources of Afghanistan, many of the available minerals also form part of electronic technology manufacturing and missile guidance system.
It is believed that establishment of Economic Corridors help in improving transit and trade facilities in easing regional trade. In South Asia infrastructure is poor compared to neighbouring regions. South Asia is considered to be volatile region owing to friction between two nuclear countries namely Pakistan and India. CPEC which is part of BRI is seen by South Asia a reform in boosting the economy of South Asian nations and bringing all of them together. CPEC which is part of BRI, aims to develop economic connection between Asia, Africa and Europe via land and marine routes. It will connect regional economies, strengthen trade, industrial and social sectors. It’s a win win situation for everyone. Many small Nations in South Asia will see this as regional integration and cooperation in transportation which was earlier seen with mistrust and hostilities. Regional groups like SAARC can be used to discuss on matters of regional cooperation in order to lower down friction between Pakistan, India and China. Hence lowering trade barriers in benefit of all. All South Asian nations are aware of the fact that CPEC is built across the region of Gilgit Baltistan, which a disputed land between India and Pakistan. China using the same region under the veil of economic development raises eyebrows with respect to future security concern in the region.
India must put forward its security concern in the global forum with respect to China’s growing control on Indian Ocean via Gwadar port. Movement of China in Gwadar port must be regulated by signing a memorandum of understanding. CPEC can be economically beneficial to India as well, as it will help in increasing its trade and investment in Afghanistan, Iran, the CAR’s, Russia, China and European nations; such advantages can be properly exploited only if peace prevails between Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. India must keep on working on its economic relation with Afghanistan, so that Afghanistan doesn’t fell prey to Pakistan plans of training terrorists against India.