POST ABROGATION OF ARTICLE 370
It was on 05 Aug 2019 that the historic decision of removal of Article 370 was carried out by the central government, the removal led to bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories namely UT of Jammu and Kashmir and UT of Ladakh apart from the special status being revoked as well which was being given to the state since 1954.Article 370 as part of special powers gave the state of J&K certain privileges to include having a separate constitution, a stateflag and an autonomy of internal administration. The decision set off a major political as well as social makeover of the region, the article was also termed as the ‘Root Cause of Terror’ in the valley and was said to have hindered the social and economic development of the region. The primary rationale of the government was elimination of terror threat behind revocation of the said article, based on the reports provided by the home ministry there was as huge as 59% decline in terror activities by 2020 and further 32% by 2021 thus the government seem to be taking right steps and in the right direction.However not all is as cozy as it seems, although the rate of terror has come down but a new concern of cross border terrorism has risen to incl incidents of attacks being carried out by drone and thus the threat of more such sophisticated attacks in future cannot be denied, it is almost 3 years now that the article has been revoked but militancy still remains a challenge despite infiltration along the LC drying up and a slight decline in local recruitment to militancy.The two main groups responsible for spread of terror in the valley are Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) & Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), however despite losing their top cdrs, the outfits continue to spread fear in the valley by recruiting locals to its top ranks.
Among the many challenges confronting the Indian security forces in the valley is that of the changing face & structure of terrorism. Most of the newly formed front groups are amorphous to a certain degree, even informally structured. They operate in small cells and do not have big org structures. Unlike in the past where recruits and leaders took the platform of social media and often announced their rebellion wearing guerilla outfits and carrying terrorist org flag in one hand and flaying weapons in another, the new recruits are more discreet and operate in anonymity and the only way to get to them is either through int from various sources or catching them performing the acts of terror at the site.These recruits lead normal lives and can be either students or hold jobs and live with their families and often do not hold any police record, they get active for a certain operation and then blend back into their day-to-day lifecycle. Since they are not on the radar of security forces it is difficult to iden them prior or post any terror activity. The recent incidents of terror in the valley indicate towards the rapid change in the nature of terrorism, earlier where the targets used to be top notch military & political leaders and various imp army installations and convoys these days the targets are various religious minorities and para mil forces. The current situation is better than what it has been in the past but then at the same time neither the terrorism has been wiped out nor the terror networks have been dismantled but the space for terrorists to operate has been severely curtailed.Despite the number of launch pads still staying close to 100 across the LC the infiltration bids have noticeably come down but the areas like Shopian and Pulwama stay the hotbed for recruitment of new terror spreaders.Since the onset of new regime from 2019 onwards many terrorist institutions have mushroomed under secular sounding names such as Resistance Front, Kashmir Tigers & Anti-Fascist Force to name a few however they are now restricted and only operate in low profile and involve in low level attacks against soft targets.
Although the security forces have seen many gains in the past but experience has taught that it does not take much time for situations to turn around. Indeed normalcy is ephemeral and any improvement in the security situation must be watched for sometime before it can actually be certain.An imp factor for the improved security situation in the valley is that the state has been made a UT and is under the rule of central rule since 2019. While there may appear to be total normalcy in the valley currently, the odd incident of terrorism cannot be ruled out completely. Although as things stand not enough has been done to dismantle the administrative state envt which existed in the past, which means it will not take much long for the things to slide back to where it was. The valley appears to be standing on the cusp of a paradigm change and thus has seen changes in almost all the phases of various aspects prevailing including terrorism. The ways of recruiting, financing and operating are undergoing a change due to Article 370 being revoked, the opportunity thus created to eliminate terrorism and to merge the new UT into the main stream should not be let go waste because creating a similar opportunity will take years down the lane and will give a chance to dying terrorism to prosper again.This opportunity should be used to understand the changing hues of terror in the valley and thus the same should be wiped off the face of the region and never let it breath & breed on this land again