From Saturday to Tuesday, an active Western Disturbance is set to result in widespread rain and snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir.
Expected Forecast as per the current conditions:
14 October:
A spell of rain/snow is expected in most parts, especially in Kashmir region.
15 October:
Intermittent rain/snow showers are expected, while in some areas, the day may predominantly remain overcast with little or no precipitation.
16 October:
Moderate rain/snow is expected in most areas. Heavy showers in a few areas can’t be ruled out.
17 October:
While some areas might experience rain or snow showers until morning/afternoon, it is anticipated that the Western Disturbance will clear out on this day.
Note: The timing of showers can vary, so day-to-day conditions may not stay exactly the same.
Temperature Forecast:
The Western Disturbance is expected to bring a significant decrease in daytime temperatures, necessitating the use of warm clothing. Maximum daytime temperatures in most parts of Kashmir are likely to stay below 14°C on October 16 and 17. In Jammu region, a major decline in daytime temperatures is also expected on the same dates.
Snow Forecast:
Many higher elevation regions could experience multiple spells of snowfall, including Zojila Pass, Sinthan Top, Sadhna Pass, Razdan Pass, and more, with the potential for several inches of snow accumulation. To avoid slippery road conditions, it’s recommended to postpone your travel plans through these passes until the weather improves.
There are also possibilities of snowfall in destinations like Gulmarg and Sonamarg, and there is a 50% chance of snowfall in Pahalgam.
Generally, no snowfall is expected in plains. Yet, based on the latest projections, the temperature in the Shopian-Kulgam belt could decrease to 4°C on Monday or early morning of Tuesday. In case, heavy rainfall occurs during the above mentioned period, there is a 30% chance that rainfall may transform into snowfall.
The weather conditions will be continuously updated.
Possibility of current forecast staying the same = 55%*
Potential that the Western Disturbance will impact with reduced intensity = 35%
Potential of it increasing in intensity = 10%
Regards: Kashmir Weather