In the shifting landscape of South Asian geopolitics, Pakistan stands at a precarious crossroads. Once seen as a frontline ally in the global war against terror, it now finds itself increasingly consumed by the very forces it once claimed to combat. The rise in terrorism across Pakistan over the last few years has not only destabilized its internal security but also poses a growing threat to regional peace and stability. From the rugged mountains of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to the troubled streets of Balochistan, the resurgence of militant groups has reignited fears of a spillover effect that could undermine the delicate balance of peace across South Asia.
Pakistan’s tryst with militancy is deeply rooted in its political and strategic history. The seeds of extremism were sown decades ago, during the Afghan jihad of the 1980s, when Pakistan became the staging ground for the U.S.-backed resistance against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. The massive inflow of arms, money and fighters during that period laid the foundation for a network of militant organizations that would later morph into global and regional terror entities. Over time, these groups initially nurtured to serve geopolitical interests began turning inward, attacking the very state that had once supported them.
Today, Pakistan is witnessing a renewed wave of terrorism that bears unsettling similarities to the turbulent years following 9/11. The recent attacks by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Islamic State Khorasan Province and Baloch separatist groups have highlighted how the country’s internal contradictions and geopolitical calculations continue to feed instability. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in particular, has re-emerged as a potent force after regrouping along the Afghan border following the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in 2021. The porous frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan a legacy of the colonial-era Durand Line has become a sanctuary for militants who move freely across both sides, taking advantage of weak border management and complex tribal loyalties.
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s revival has been marked by a sharp increase in attacks targeting Pakistan’s security forces, police installations and public infrastructure. In 2023 alone, Pakistan recorded more than a thousand terrorist incidents, the highest in nearly a decade, according to independent security think tanks. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remain the worst affected provinces, with daily reports of ambushes, suicide bombings and targeted killings. The group’s expanding operational capacity and ideological cohesion have raised alarms not only in Islamabad but also in regional capitals that fear a cascading wave of extremism spreading across borders.
The roots of this resurgence lie in Pakistan’s own complex relationship with militant groups. For years, Islamabad’s security establishment pursued a policy of “strategic depth” using militant organizations as tools to exert influence in Afghanistan and against India in Kashmir. This dual policy, while yielding short-term tactical advantages, created a long-term monster that now challenges the very coherence of the Pakistani state. The line between “good” and “bad” militants a distinction often drawn by policymakers has blurred to the point of irrelevance. Groups once tolerated or tacitly supported have turned their guns inward, creating a cycle of violence that the state seems increasingly incapable of controlling.
The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has further complicated Pakistan’s security matrix. While Islamabad initially welcomed the Taliban takeover in 2021, hoping for a friendly regime that would curb anti-Pakistan elements, the reality has turned out to be quite the opposite. The Afghan Taliban, though ideologically aligned with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, has done little to restrain its activities. On the contrary, many Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan leaders and fighters have found safe haven across the border, launching cross-border attacks into Pakistani territory. The resulting friction has strained Islamabad-Kabul relations, with border clashes and diplomatic tensions becoming increasingly frequent.
Meanwhile, Balochistan continues to simmer with its own insurgency, driven by decades of political neglect, economic deprivation, and heavy-handed security operations. Baloch separatist outfits such as the Balochistan Liberation Army and Baloch Republican Army have intensified attacks on Chinese interests in the region, particularly targeting projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. These attacks not only threaten Pakistan’s economic future but also complicate its relationship with China, a key strategic and financial partner. Beijing’s growing frustration with Islamabad’s inability to protect its personnel and assets has been evident in repeated warnings and temporary suspensions of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor -related work.
The cumulative impact of these multiple insurgencies is devastating. Pakistan’s economy, already crippled by inflation, currency depreciation and debt, is bleeding further under the weight of insecurity. Foreign investors are increasingly reluctant to engage with a country where suicide bombings and armed ambushes have become a grim routine. The tourism sector, once touted as a potential growth engine, remains stunted. Even domestic industries struggle to operate amid frequent power shortages, supply disruptions and deteriorating law and order. For a country that desperately needs stability to rebuild its economy, the resurgence of terrorism represents a major setback.
Beyond its borders, Pakistan’s instability poses significant risks for South Asia. The region is a mosaic of fragile peace arrangements, historical grievances and emerging economic ambitions. India, Afghanistan, Iran and China all share borders or interests with Pakistan and each face potential repercussions from its internal turmoil. For India, Pakistan’s domestic chaos raises immediate security concerns, especially given Islamabad’s history of using cross-border terrorism as a strategic tool. The fear that domestic militant groups could again be redirected toward Kashmir or Indian targets remains a serious concern for New Delhi.
For Afghanistan, the situation is equally dire. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s cross-border operations have emboldened extremist networks within Afghanistan, undermining the Taliban’s promises of ensuring that Afghan soil will not be used for terrorism. The growing tension between the two neighbors threatens to destabilize the border regions further, potentially reigniting the cycle of proxy conflicts that has plagued both nations for decades. Iran, too, faces the fallout of militancy, with groups like Jaish al-Adl carrying out attacks across the Pak-Iran border, further straining relations.
China’s stakes in Pakistan are both economic and strategic. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor a flagship project of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative runs through some of the most volatile regions of Pakistan, including Gwadar and Balochistan. Persistent attacks on Chinese engineers, convoys and energy projects have forced China to enhance its security footprint, something that could alter regional equations. If Pakistan fails to contain terrorism, Beijing might increasingly deploy private security contractors or press for a more direct role in safeguarding its investments — a move that could complicate regional geopolitics.
The United States, though no longer deeply involved in Afghanistan, continues to monitor the security situation in Pakistan with concern. The resurgence of terrorist networks in the region could once again make South Asia a breeding ground for transnational terrorism, undermining global counterterrorism efforts. Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was meant to mark the end of two decades of war, but Pakistan’s deteriorating internal stability could reopen the very chapters that the international community hoped had been closed.
Internally, Pakistan’s political instability compounds its security challenges. The frequent power struggles between civilian governments and the military establishment have created an environment where long-term counterterrorism policies are replaced by ad-hoc responses. Political polarization, economic collapse and social unrest have eroded public confidence in the state’s ability to protect its citizens. The lack of a coherent national counter-extremism narrative allows radical ideologies to spread unchecked, particularly among disillusioned youth in conflict-ridden areas.
What makes the situation even more precarious is the ideological penetration of extremism within society. Over decades, radical religious groups have deeply influenced Pakistan’s social fabric, education system, and political discourse. The proliferation of madrassas funded by external sources has produced generations of youth susceptible to extremist ideologies. In such an environment, even successful military operations like Zarb-e-Azb or Radd-ul-Fasaad can only offer temporary relief. Without ideological countermeasures and socioeconomic reforms, the cycle of extremism is bound to repeat itself.
Restoring peace in Pakistan requires more than military might it demands political courage, institutional reform and regional cooperation. Islamabad must move beyond its traditional security-centric approach and focus on addressing the root causes of extremism poverty, lack of education, political alienation and inequitable development. In Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, inclusive governance and genuine dialogue are essential to undercut the grievances that fuel insurgency.
On the regional front, Pakistan must realize that sustainable peace cannot be achieved through duplicity or proxy games. Cooperation with neighboring countries, especially Afghanistan and India, in matters of intelligence sharing, border control, and counterterrorism is vital. While historical mistrust makes such cooperation difficult, the shared threat of extremism could serve as common ground for pragmatic engagement.
Internationally, Pakistan needs to rebuild credibility. Its repeated failure to act decisively against UN-designated terror groups has eroded global trust. Unless it demonstrates a genuine break from its past policies of selective tolerance toward terrorism, it risks further isolation from the global community. The Financial Action Task Force episodes served as a warning; Pakistan cannot afford another international backlash, especially amid its economic crisis.
The rising tide of terrorism in Pakistan is not just an internal crisis it is a regional emergency. The fragile peace that South Asia enjoys today stands at risk of unravelling if Pakistan fails to rein in extremist forces. The cost of inaction will not be limited to Islamabad alone; it will echo across the borders, threatening trade, connectivity, and the collective aspiration for stability.
In the final analysis, Pakistan’s current predicament is a product of its own contradictions — a nation caught between ideology and pragmatism, between the ghosts of its past and the demands of its future. Whether it chooses to confront these contradictions or continue oscillating between denial and reaction will determine not just its destiny, but that of the entire region. The rise of terrorism within its borders is a stark reminder that no state can nurture the flames of extremism without eventually being consumed by them. For the sake of its people and for regional peace, Pakistan must now make a decisive choice between chaos and stability, between regression and reform. The world is watching, but the burden of change lies squarely within