Aazan Manzoor
Srinagar, Jan 19 (JKNS): Jammu & Kashmir is set to experience significant winter weather as a strong Western Disturbance (WD) is expected to impact the region from January 22, initially affecting higher reaches.
By the night of 22 January, most parts of J&K are likely to witness rain and snow.
Faizan Arif Keng independent weather forcaster told news agency JKNS, Meteorological models over the past two days indicate consistent wind patterns, though precipitation intensity may vary slightly.
He say the overall scenario points towards a substantial winter spell across the Union Territory.
There is a high probability of widespread snowfall even in the plains, supported by favourable temperatures and moderate to heavy precipitation.
The heaviest impact is expected between the night of 22 January and the afternoon/evening of 23 January, if Allah wills, we will witness first major snowfall of the season
The cold air associated with this WD is expected to produce dry snow, which can accumulate quickly and heavily, even with moderate precipitation. Dry snow is likely to lead to higher accumulation compared to wet snow.
Districts including Doda, Poonch, Kishtwar, and Ramban are likely to receive good snowfall. Plains in the Jammu region may experience moderate to heavy rainfall, with areas near the Pir Panjal mountains expected to be the most affected.
A cold air mass moving from the west is expected to trigger a sharp fall in temperatures on the night of 23 January. Calm winds following the precipitation could enhance radiational cooling, increasing the chances of very low night temperatures, especially if fresh snow accumulates.
Authorities have cautioned that roads may turn extremely slippery due to fresh snowfall and freezing conditions. Daytime conditions on 23 January may also remain hazardous, increasing the risk of road accidents. Residents and travellers are advised to take precautions.
Precautionary Notes, Landslides and shooting stones are likely along the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway.
The Ramban sector may turn slippery due to snow and ice. Residents in higher reaches should clear accumulated snow from rooftops to prevent structural damage.
Flight and train services may be disrupted; travellers are advised to plan accordingly. A fresh forecast update will be issued on 22 January morning to reflect the latest model trends.
Forecast confidence stands at approximately 75%, with meteorologists saying the next 48 hours will provide clearer insights into precipitation intensity and snow distribution.
Meanwhile, The Meteorological Centre Srinagar of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday issued a weather advisory forecasting the impact of two back-to-back Western Disturbances over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining areas from January 22 to January 28, 2026.
The advisory as per news agency JKNS stated, the first Western Disturbance, expected to affect the region from January 22 to January 24 with peak intensity on January 23, is likely to be strong. The second system is projected to influence weather conditions from the night of January 26 till the forenoon of January 28, with peak activity anticipated on January 27, and is expected to be of moderate intensity.
The IMD has predicted widespread light to moderate rainfall and snowfall across Jammu and Kashmir during this period, with heavy precipitation at isolated locations. The initial system is likely to bring heavy rain and snowfall over the Pir Panjal range, including the Chenab Valley in Jammu division, as well as middle and higher reaches of south Kashmir districts such as Anantnag, Pahalgam, Kulgam, Shopian, Pir Ki Gali, Gulmarg, Sonamarg-Zojila axis, Bandipora-Razdan Pass, Kupwara-Sadhna Pass, besides Doda, Udhampur, Reasi, Kishtwar and Ramban.
The second Western Disturbance is also expected to cause moderate to heavy rainfall and snowfall over the Pir Panjal range, Chenab Valley and the middle to higher reaches of south Kashmir.
The weather department has warned of possible disruption to surface and air transport, including temporary closures of the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway and other major roads in higher reaches. Tourists, commuters and transporters have been advised to plan their travel accordingly.
Residents of snow-bound areas have been cautioned against venturing into avalanche-prone and steep slopes, while farmers have been advised to halt irrigation, fertilizer application and spraying activities during the affected period. The advisory also flags the possibility of landslides, mudslides and gusty winds reaching speeds of 40 to 60 kmph at vulnerable locations.
Authorities have been advised to take necessary precautionary measures in view of the forecast weather conditions. (JKNS)
