Srinagar, Jan 22 (JKNS): A strong Western Disturbance is set to affect Jammu and Kashmir with near certainty, bringing widespread and intense snowfall across Kashmir and parts of the Jammu region, independent weather forecaster Kashmir Weather has said.
Faizan Arif, who runs the independent weather channel Kashmir Weather, told news agency JKNS that confidence regarding the system has further strengthened, with the probability of a major weather event now close to 95 percent. He said prevailing weather models appear to be underestimating the strength of the incoming system.
According to him, the Western Disturbance will begin impacting the higher reaches of North Kashmir from Thursday afternoon, while most parts of Jammu and Kashmir will come under its influence by night hours.
“There is a very high probability of widespread snowfall over Kashmir plains, along with parts of Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban and Kathua,” he said, adding that although the system may weaken within 24 hours, snowfall intensity during this short window is expected to remain high due to strong moisture availability.
He said the peak impact period is likely from tonight till late tomorrow afternoon, while rain or snow may continue in some pockets till the morning of January 24.
Faizan further said that from tonight onwards, the atmospheric pattern over Jammu and Kashmir is expected to reset, paving the way for a cold wave and prolonged cold conditions across the region. “True winter conditions are likely to dominate for the remainder of the month,” he said.
On possible snow accumulation, he said it would depend largely on snow density. Under dry snow conditions, accumulation in plains could range from 4 inches to nearly 2 feet, with higher amounts near the Pir Panjal belt, particularly Shopian district. Under wet snow conditions, snowfall may range between 3 inches and 1.5 feet, while higher reaches could receive 2 to 4 feet of fresh snow.
He added that moderate to heavy rainfall is expected across Jammu plains, and the system may also be accompanied by strong wind gusts.
The forecaster warned that January 23 may witness travel disruptions, with air, rail and road connectivity likely to be affected in several areas.
Meanwhile, Kashmir Weather reported that, Srinagar recorded –3.4°C, Pahalgam –4.4°C, Gulmarg –4.0°C, Pulwama –5.8°C, Shopian –5.4°C, Anantnag –5.3°C, and Sonamarg –6.1°C.
In the Jammu region, Banihal recorded –2.2°C, Bhaderwah –1.5°C, Udhampur 1.0°C, Rajouri 1.0°C, and Samba 0.1°C, while Jammu city recorded 7.2°C.
Ladakh continued to remain under severe cold conditions, with Leh at –10.6°C, Hanle –11.0°C, and Kargil –8.4°C.
People, particularly travellers and residents of higher reaches, have been advised to remain cautious and follow official advisories in view of the expected weather conditions. (JKNS)