India’s daily coronavirus numbers have fallen in the last few weeks. Are we getting closer to the end of the Covid-19 pandemic? Experts from Mumbai hospitals weigh in.
For the first time in seven months, weekly cases of coronavirus in India reportedly dropped below the one-lakh mark on Sunday. The rate of daily deaths due to the coronavirus disease has also dropped. It is but natural for the common man who’s been living in terror of the virus for nearly a year to wonder about the end of the pandemic.
India Today TV approached medical experts in Mumbai and spoke to them about the declining Covid-19 pandemic.
Doctor Rahul Pandit, Director, Critical Care Fortis Hospitals Mumbai and Member of Maharashtra Covid-19 task force told India Today that Mumbai is slowly approaching closer to the end of the pandemic. The expert suggested that several pockets in the city have already developed herd immunity. But the senior doctor also warned of another wave of coronavirus.
Dr Lancelot Pinto, consultant pulmonologist, PD Hinduja Hospital, said there is always hope that this is the end of the pandemic, but it would be premature to let the guard down.
The doctor reminded that there have been multiple waves of the disease across the world and many countries saw a new wave at a time when they felt secure with the declining number of cases.
“The Brazilian city of Manaus, which at the end of last year, was being cited as an example of herd immunity leading to a drop in the number of cases, ran out of oxygen last week because of its healthcare being overwhelmed by the second wave. We need to be very cautious about easing all restrictions,” he said.
Dr Mala V Kaneria, consultant (infectious diseases) at Jaslok Hospital and Research Centre too has her reservations. While agreeing that the numbers in Maharashtra and Mumbai are on a decline, she said it would be difficult to say if India has reached the end of the pandemic. She added that the spread of highly infectious mutant strains from across the borders can undo all efforts.
Numbers are definitely under control in many pockets of Mumbai, including Dharavi, which at one point of time had become the biggest fear factor for not just the state government but also the central health agencies. While the data is encouraging, medical experts caution that the public transport system is still not working in full capacity and once that happens, it could lead to super-spreader events.
Dr Lancelot Pinto said, “Seroprevalence studies, especially in the slums of Mumbai, have revealed a high prevalence of antibodies. It is possible that the city is attaining herd immunity. Hopefully, the combination of a high seroprevalence along with increasing vaccine coverage may lead to true herd immunity.”
But even if herd immunity is attained, a second wave by a mutant virus, which is highly infectious and one which affects those with comorbidities, can cause increased mortality adds Dr Mala V Kaneria.
What then is the best safety mechanism?
Dr Lancelot Pinto said at a health systems level, the Covid-19 epidemic has exposed how weak the public healthcare infrastructure is. India needs to invest a lot more in health to better prepare for the next virus attack, he added.
“Measures like hand-hygiene and preventing overcrowding, especially for vulnerable individuals would serve us well. A strong sense of social responsibility needs to be instituted by discouraging individuals from leaving their homes when unwell, encouraging work from home in such situations, conducting educational campaigns that prevent spitting, encourage cough hygiene and seeking help early in the disease trajectory. Such education needs to be instituted from schools; children who are unwell should be encouraged to stay at home out of respect and concern for fellow students,” he added.