Srinagar, Aug 29 (JKNS): The recent Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) tragedy in Nepal has brought renewed attention to Jammu and Kashmir’s preparedness against similar high-altitude disasters, with experts warning that the Union Territory continues to lag behind several other Himalayan regions in establishing real-time monitoring and early-warning systems.
A study by the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, published in the Journal of Glaciology, has classified five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalayas—Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar—as having “very high susceptibility” to GLOFs.
According to the study, the five lakes collectively pose potential risks to around 2,704 buildings, nearly 15 major bridges, stretches of road networks and one hydropower plant located across Ganderbal, Shopian and Kulgam districts.
A GLOF occurs when a large volume of water stored in a glacial lake is suddenly released, often following the failure of an ice or moraine dam. Such floods can rapidly travel downstream carrying water, boulders, mud and debris, potentially causing extensive damage to settlements and infrastructure.
Associate Professor in the Department of Geoinformatics at the University of Kashmir, Dr Irfan Rashid, said the identified lakes should not be viewed as unstable at present but nevertheless warrant close monitoring because of their potential risk.
“The lakes are not unstable at present, but nevertheless risky,” Rashid said.
He said the risk could increase over time, particularly in the case of Gangabal, which has the Harmukh glacier upstream and is located in a steep terrain.
“In a few years, the lakes like Gangabal may be a risk. Gangabal has Harmukh glacier upstream, and it is on a steep slope. In view of disaster like that of Nepal, we must take into account such factors as well,” he said.
Rashid also stressed the importance of assessing the volume of water stored in glacial lakes, saying better data would help the Government incorporate scientific findings into disaster-management and planning policies.
“Our urban planning and disaster mitigation policies need to take into account the environment and geological research carried out by academia here,” he said.
He further pointed out that Chirsar and Bramsar, both located in Kulgam district, are ice-contact lakes, meaning they have formed at the terminal point of glaciers. According to Rashid, these two lakes have among the highest susceptibility to GLOFs in Kashmir.
Government Has Acknowledged Risk
Earlier this year, the J&K Government, in a reply to a starred question in the Legislative Assembly, acknowledged the findings and outlined a roadmap for addressing glacial-lake risks.
The proposed measures include continuous remote-sensing and field monitoring, installation of early-warning systems, bathymetric surveys, development of ecozonation plans and integration of GLOF scenarios into district disaster-management plans.
Bathymetric surveys planned for 2026 are particularly important as they can help determine the depth and volume of water in vulnerable lakes, providing crucial inputs for modelling the possible extent and intensity of an outburst flood.
At the University of Kashmir, work is also underway on mountain-specific early-warning prototypes that combine satellite data, field observations and real-time sensors.
However, experts point out that significant gaps remain between scientific assessments and operational preparedness on the ground.
Kashmir Lags Behind Other Himalayan States
Several Himalayan states have moved ahead in developing dedicated monitoring and warning mechanisms following major disasters.
Sikkim, for instance, has developed operational water-level sensors, automatic weather stations and a dedicated GLOF early-warning system following the devastating South Lhonak Lake GLOF in 2023.
In Himachal Pradesh, a C-DAC-developed prototype has been tested at Sissu and is being scaled up to strengthen early-warning capabilities.
In contrast, J&K currently lacks a comparable network of real-time monitoring hardware and functional GLOF early-warning systems, while comprehensive bathymetric surveys required for accurate flood modelling remain limited.
This gap assumes significance as climate change continues to alter the Himalayan cryosphere. Rising temperatures are contributing to glacier retreat and changes in glacial-lake characteristics, increasing the need for continuous monitoring of vulnerable high-altitude water bodies.
Thousands of Lakes Require Assessment
Rashid said effective GLOF risk mitigation in the Himalayas would require assessment and monitoring of thousands of glacial lakes, describing the exercise as a serious and long-term scientific undertaking.
The national GLOF Risk Mitigation Programme initially prioritised Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, while Kashmir and Ladakh were subsequently brought into the broader risk-mitigation framework.
Experts say Kashmir has a strong scientific baseline because of research undertaken by academic institutions. However, the absence of adequate field-level infrastructure—including installed sensors, operational warning mechanisms and comprehensive field assessments—continues to leave the region vulnerable.
The Nepal disaster has consequently emerged as a warning for Himalayan regions, highlighting how rapidly glacial hazards can translate into catastrophic floods.
For Jammu and Kashmir, experts stress that scientific identification of vulnerable lakes must now be followed by real-time monitoring, early-warning systems, accurate flood modelling, downstream hazard mapping and community-level evacuation plans.
With thousands of people and critical infrastructure potentially located downstream of glacial lakes, converting existing scientific research into operational disaster-preparedness measures could prove crucial in reducing casualties and damage from any future GLOF event. (JKNS)
